Tuesday 21 April 2009

CVAs or "The Magic of your Own Credit on Profits"

There has been much discussion in recent days regarding the surprisingly positive results coming out of US banks. There has been an equal amount of disection of those same results, and in particular those of Citi.

In Citi's Q1 earnings report, it mentions the following commentary for its fixed income division:

"A net $2.5 billion positive CVA on derivative positions, excluding monolines, mainly due to the widening of Citi's CDS spreads"

A number of commentators have rightly focused on this, with most describing it as a one-off gain as a result of Citi essentially making bets, using CDS, on its own creditworthiness. However, I believe that the reality is somewhat different, and in fact more troubling. The analysis below is something I have wanted to blog about for a while, and now seems the perfect opportunity. A warning - to really demonstrate the point, I've used a numerical example - please stick with it, as I feel it really hits the point home.

Good old-fashioned cash products

Once upon a time we lived in a financial world that was largely cash based e.g. cash equities, cash bonds. These would be traded on active markets, with high price transparency. A liquid cash bond, say a 10yr Citi (C) issue, would be widely traded, and participants would be able to get executable prices throughout the day. What would the bond price depend on? Among other things, market interest rates, liquidity in the market, and the perceived creditworthiness of Citi.

Let's say Goldman Sachs (GS) buys $1m worth of the Citi bond at par. A few days later, some bad news spreads round the market about Citi, and the price falls to 70. How do both companies account for it?

GS - The bond was bought by the trading desk seeking to make a short term profit. As such, GS marks the bond to market, in this case taking a $300k loss. For those accountants among you, the entry would be:

DR Principal Transactions $300k

CR Financial Assets $300k

C - Most firms when they issue bonds use the amortised cost method to account for the bonds i.e. they accrue interest over the life of the bond less any cash payments made to holder. When it first issued the bond, Citi recognised a liability for $1m, and the liability stays that way despite the fall in fair value of the bond. This makes perfect sense, because Citi still expects to be a going concern and still expects to repay the £1m at maturity.

Fancy new derivatives

Fast forward to 2009. What is a derivative? There are all sorts of 'official' definitions floating about, but for now we will say it is a legal contract between two parties to exchange certain cashflows at certain future dates. Keep this in mind whilst reading the next couple of sections.

Counterparty CVA

Now imagine instead that GS enters into an OTC derivative trade with C, sometime in the past. At year end, GS's theoretical model says that the swap has a FV of $1m in favour of GS i.e. it is an asset for GS, a liability for C.

What does GS have on its balance sheet? It has a $1m financial asset, with Citi as the counterparty. GS marks the position to market i.e. at fair value. What is the definition of an asset's fair value? Accounting standards differ slightly in their wording, but in principal it is the price you could sell that asset for in an arm's length transaction. So GS should mark to $1m then? No. Remember, GS doesn't have a derivative financial asset, it has a derivative financial asset with C as the counterparty. I.e. fair value in relation to OTCs effectively says 'At what price would a 3rd party be willing to take your place in a trade?' A buyer would pay more to 'swap places' with GS if the counterparty was JP Morgan, than if it was Citi, because Citi is a greater credit risk.

So how does GS establish this fair value, taking into account the credit worthiness of its counterparty? This is an OTC trade, which by definition is not exchange traded. In the cash bond example above, GS could find the allowance for the increased credit risk of C because it was incorporated into the market price of the bond. For the OTC, GS turns to indicative measures - in this case CDS spreads on C. Let's say CDS on Citi debt is trading at a spread of 500bps at year end. Goldman incorporates this spread into the risk-free rate used in its pricing model, and it spits out a FV of $700k i.e. $300k less.

GS therefore takes a counterparty Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) of $300k. This seems fairly prudent- in effect, GS is taking a $300k credit reserve against potential default by a counterparty. For accounting geeks like me, the entries would be:

DR Principal Transactions $300k

CR Financial Assets $300k

Own Credit CVA

Now what about Citi? It has the same pricing model as GS, which calculates a FV of $1m. So surely C recognises a financial liability of $1m? No. Again, accounting standards differ slightly in wording, but in principal the fair value of a liability is the price at which an entity could extinguish any future obligations, in an arm's length transaction. I.e. "What price would a counterparty be willing to cancel/settle the trade at now?" Well, we have seen above that GS, and probably the rest of the market, would accept $700k to cancel the deal. So, Citi gets to write the liability down to $700k. In accounting terms:

DR Financial Liabilities $300k

CR Principal Transactions $300k

Yes, you have read it correctly - Citi has made a profit of $300k as a result of becoming less creditworthy!!! In accounting/industry spreak, Citi has made an Own Credit CVA of $300k.

Not a One-Time Item, but a Two-Timer

Most blogger and analyst commentary that I have read on this Citi gain and others (see below) describes an Own Credit CVA as a 'one-off' or 'one-time' item.

Unfortunately, they could not be more wrong! In the above trade, what would happen if at the end of the next quarter, Citi's CDS spread fell to 20bps i.e. it becomes more creditworthy? Lets assume the model FV is still $1m. GS plugs the new Citi CDS into the risk-free rate used by the model, at it spits out a FV of fairly close to $1m again. GS can therefore release the CVA of $300k that it had reserved for earlier. The double entry for GS would be:

DR Financial Asset $300k

CR Principal Transactions $300k

I.e. GS makes a profit of $300k in Q1.

Now Citi. The fair value that counterparties are willing to cancel the trade at appears to be back to $1m. Therefore, C writes the liability up to $1m again. The double entry is:

DR Principal Transactions $300k

CR Financial Liabilities $300k

I.e. Citi makes a loss of $300k in Q1.

This is what makes the Citi CVA a two-time item - if Citi continues as a going concern and its credit spread falls, it will at some point have to reverse the $2.5bn profit it gained in Q1 2009 i.e. it will have to recognise a $2.5bn loss.

But wait there's more...

I've shown above that there are two types of CVA - a counterparty CVA that a bank applies to its assets, and an Own Credit CVA that a bank can apply on its OTC liabilities. The $2.5bn reported by Citi is a NET amount. I.e. at the very least, $2.5bn will have to be reversed at some stage. Let's say Citi made a Counterparty CVA of $1bn in Q1 (not unreasonable on a balance sheet with $2.2 trillion in assets). That would mean that the Own Credit CVA was actually $3.5bn i.e. an extra billion to reverse in future.

So did Citi purchase CDS on itself?

I'm pretty sure they haven't - Citi's press release mentioned CDS spreads in the context of CVAs, not proprietory CDS positions on its own debt. Plus how would Citi ever gain? OK, it buys protection on itself initially. Its credit spread widens, and the CDS is worth more - but how would they ever unwind this in the market? Usually you would do a back to back CDS trade selling protection at the higher spread, and pocket the difference. But what would motivate a counterparty to buy protection on Citi from Citi?

I've worked on CVA calculations for financial institutions, and currently the best proxy for credit worthiness is a CDS spread, given the illiquidity in cash bond markets, which makes me firmly believe Citi's mention of CDS relates to CVAs.


Stop picking on Citi

I think I've bashed Citi enough in the above sections. I'll give them a rest, and instead present to you a few Own Credit CVA snippets from around the banking world:

RBS - Pg 207 of the 2008 annual report shows own credit gains of £2.823bn ($4.15bn)

HSBC - Pg 31 of the 2008 annual report shows $6.57bn of own credit gains, on $6.5bn of profit for the year.

Barclays - Pg 4 of the 2008 annual report shows own credit gains of £1.663bn ($2.44bn)

ML/BoA - Hard to be 100% on this one, but looks like a $2.2bn CVA gain on structured notes in Q1 (from the Q1 press release)

Together with Citi, that means approximately $17.9bn will have to be charged back to bank P&Ls. Or put another way - in the last few months, the above banks have reported $17.9bn of profit they probably will never actually realise (this is on top of the general MTM issues on illiquid assets).

In Conclusion

Hopefully the above analysis has helped. Own Credit CVAs are an unintended consequence of fair value accounting. Any firm that is a going concern will never realise the profits shown, and will in fact have to reverse them in future periods, thus showing apparent losses. I'm a big supporter of fair value, as I believe it helped expose the problems in the banking system much earlier than if we were using historic cost. However, nothing is perfect - and it is these imperfections in fair value, and their possible cures, that I will be looking at in future posts. If you have any questions/queries/comments, please leave them in the comments section, or email me at holdingtoaccount@googlemail.com.

34 comments:

  1. When i think of how fair value accounting rules intended to create more transparency are creating some opacity, I start to wonder whether the problem is not simply the use of rules themselves in doing accounting. every company is different and society so complex that unforeseen circumstances are continually frustrating rule-based systems. Maybe it would be better to have accountants who understand their job not to be applying rules but rather trying -- more like a writer or artist -- to paint an accurate picture of the finances of a company. Under such a regime, we could immediately say that the accountants preparing C's reports are failing in their professional duty. Under the current rule-based system, they get away with doing a bad job by "just following the rules."

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  14. I was searching for loan to sort out my bills& debts, then i saw comments about Blank ATM Credit Card that can be hacked to withdraw money from any ATM machines around you . I doubted thus but decided to give it a try by contacting (smithhackingcompanyltd@gmail.com} they responded with their guidelines on how the card works. I was assured that the card can withdraw $5,000 instant per day & was credited with$50,000,000.00 so i requested for one & paid the delivery fee to obtain the card, after 24 hours later, i was shock to see the UPS agent in my resident with a parcel{card} i signed and went back inside and confirmed the card work's after the agent left. This is no doubts because i have the card & has made used of the card. This hackers are USA based hackers set out to help people with financial freedom!! Contact these email if you wants to get rich with this Via: smithhackingcompanyltd@gmail.com or WhatsApp +1(360)6370612

    ReplyDelete
  15. 2021 FUNDS/ YOU CAN FINALLY BE FREE FROM DEBT GET OUR BLANK ATM CARD!!!

     GET YOUR SPECIALLY PROGRAMMED BLANK ATM CREDIT CARD AT AFFORDABLE PRICE, THIS SPECIAL CREDIT CARD COMES WITH NO CREDIT SCORE AND YOU WILL NEVER HAVE TO REPAY FOR ANY TRANSACTION YOU MAKE WITH IT, IT IS FREE MONEY.
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    • However, Some People Might Have Lost So Many Funds With BINARY OPTIONS BROKERS or BTC MINING and wish to Recover Their Funds
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    ReplyDelete
  16. IT WORKS EVERYWHERE IN THE WORLD!! JUST LOCATE AN ATM MACHINE!!!
    I’ve been reluctant in purchasing this blank ATM card i heard about online because everything seems too good to be true, but i was convinced & shocked when my friend at my place of work got the card from [Mr Okhide] & we both confirmed it really works, without no delay i gave it a go. Ever since then I’ve been withdrawing $5000 daily from the card & the money .has been in my own account. So glad i gave it a try at last & this card has really changed my life financially without getting caught, its real & truly works though its illegal but made me rich!! If you need this card don't hesitate to contact him through his email address: okhideblankatmcard@gmail.com ..

    ReplyDelete
  17. I was searching for loan to sort out my bills& debts, then i saw comments about Blank ATM Credit Card that can be hacked to withdraw money from any ATM machines around you . I doubted thus but decided to give it a try by contacting (smithhackingcompanyltd@gmail.com} they responded with their guidelines on how the card works. I was assured that the card can withdraw $5,000 instant per day & was credited with$50,000,000.00 so i requested for one & paid the delivery fee to obtain the card, after 24 hours later, i was shock to see the UPS agent in my resident with a parcel{card} i signed and went back inside and confirmed the card work's after the agent left. This is no doubts because i have the card & has made used of the card. This hackers are USA based hackers set out to help people with financial freedom!! Contact these email if you wants to get rich with this Via: smithhackingcompanyltd@gmail.com or Whats-app +1(360)6370612

    ReplyDelete
  18. BE SMART AND BECOME RICH IN LESS THAN 3 DAYS....It all depends on how fast you can be to get the new PROGRAMMED blank ATM card that is capable of hacking into any ATM machine, anywhere in the world. I got to know about this BLANK ATM CARD when I was searching for job online about a month ago.. It has really changed my life for good and now I can say I'm rich and I can never be poor again. The least money I get in a month with it is about $50,000.(fifty thousand USD). Everyday I keep pumping money into my account. Though it is illegal, there is no risk of being caught, because it has been programmed in such a way that it is not traceable, it also has a technique that makes it impossible for the CCTV's to detect you.. For details on how to get yours today,email the hackers on: harrybrownn59@gmail.com Tell your loved ones too, and start to live large. That's the simple testimony of how my life changed for good... Love you all... The email address again is harrybrownn59@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  19. GET RICH IN LESS THAN THREE DAYS...THIS IS NOT A JOKE
    withdraw $5000 dollars in one day with this card
    i want everyone to be rich like me,i want everyone to partake on this new trick called programmed blank ATM card,i got a card from this hacking company that is why i am sharing the good news to the world,BLANK ATM CARDS ARE REAL, thank you. brainhackers@aol.com
    website https://expertatmhackersrealmachineshackers.wordpress.com

    ReplyDelete
  20. Have you pay your necessary BILLS? Do you need money? Do you want a better way to transform your own life? My name his Elizabeth Maxwell. I am here to share with you about Mr OSCAR WHITE new system of making others rich with not less than two to three days.I was in search of a job opportunity on the internet when i come across his aid on a blogs that i was on to, talking on how he can help the needy with a programmed BLANK ATM CARD.I thought it was a scam or normal gist but i never had a choice than to contact him cause i was seriously in need of Finance for Business.I contacted him on the CARD, and not less than a minute he respond and give me the necessary information’s on how to get the card. My friends, today am a sweet happy woman with good business and a happy family. I charge you not to live by ignorance.Try and get an ATM card today through (MR OSCAR WHITE)and be among the lucky ones who are benefiting from this card. This ATM card is capable of hacking into any ATM machine anywhere in the world.It has really changed my life and now I can say I’m rich because I am a living testimony. The less money I get in a day with this card is $15,000.Every now and then money keep pumping into my account. Although is illegal, there is no risk of being caught, as it is programmed so that it can not trace you, but also has a technique that makes it impossible for the CCTV to detect you.. I urge you to contact him on the BLANK ATM CARD. For details on how to get yours today, email hackers oscarwhitehackersworld@gmail.com ,whats-app +1(209)-643-1515

    ReplyDelete
  21. I was searching for a loan to sort out my bills & debts, then I saw comments about Blank ATM Credit Cards that can be hacked to withdraw money from any ATM machines around you . I doubted this but decided to give it a try by contacting { officialblankatmservice@gmail.com} they responded with their guidelines on how the card works. I was assured that the card can withdraw $5,000 instant per day & was credited with $50,000,000.00 so i requested for one & paid the delivery fee to obtain the card, after 24 hours later, i was shock to see the UPS agent in my resident with a parcel {card} i signed and went back inside to pick up my car key and drove to a nearest ATM machine to confirmed if the card really work to my greatest surprise it did.. This is no doubt because I have the card & have made use of the card. These hackers are UK based hackers set out to help people with financial freedom!! Contact them via email: officialblankatmservice@gmail.com or WhatsApp +447937001817 if you want to get rich.

    ReplyDelete
  22. HAVE YOU BEEN IN SEARCH FOR GENUINE HACKER'S ONLINE?. HAVE YOU LOST YOUR MONEY TO BINARY OPTION SCAM OR ANY ONLINE SCAM WHATSOEVER?. WELL, YOU HAVE FOUND REDEMPTION .

    BLANK ATM CARD :We have specially programmed BLANK ATM CARDS that can be used to hack any ATM machine, these ATM cards can be used to withdraw at the ATM or swipe, stores and outlets. We sell this BLANK CARDS to all our customers and interested buyers worldwide, the BLANK CARDS has a daily withdrawal limit of $5000 in ATM and up to $50,000 spending limit in stores. and also if you are in need of any other cyber hacking services, we are here for you at any time any day. Email :
    Email:Creditcards.atm@gmail.com
    WhatsApp: +1(539) 888-2243

    -hack into any kind of phone
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    ReplyDelete
  23. Hello my name is Scott Mcall. I want to use this medium to share to you guys about how my life changed for the better after meeting good hackers, I got $15,000USD while working with them. They are really efficient and reliable, they perform various hack such as.
    BLANK ATM CARD
    PAYPAL HACK TRANSFER
    WESTERN UNION HACK
    MONEY HACK
    BITCOIN INVESTMENT

    Please if you are interested in any of this, contact them via Jaxononlinehackers@gmail.com
    WhatsApp: ‪+1 (219)2714465

    Contact them today and be happy

    ReplyDelete
  24. I was searching for loan to sort out my bills& debts, then i saw comments about Blank ATM Credit Card that can be hacked to withdraw money from any ATM machines around you. I doubted this but decided to give it a try by contacting {professional.hacker55@yahoo.com} they responded with their guidelines on how the card works. I was assured that the card can withdraw $5,000 instant per day & was credited with$50,000,000.00 so i requested for one & paid the delivery fee to obtain the card, after 24 hours later, i was shock to see the UPS agent in my resident with a parcel{card} i signed and went back inside and confirmed the card work's after the agent left. This is no doubts because i have the card & has made used of the card. This hackers are USA based hackers set out to help people with financial freedom!! Contact these email if you wants to get rich with this Via: professional.hacker55@yahoo.com.

    ReplyDelete
  25. HAVE YOU LOST YOUR MONEY TO BINARY OPTION SCAM OR ANY ONLINE SCAM WHATSOEVER?.DO YOUR DESIRE CREDIT REPAIR[EQUIFAX, EXPERIAN, TRANSUNION? WELL, YOU HAVE FOUND REDEMPTION.


    BEWARE OF FRAUDSTERS looking to hoax.
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    whatsapp:+1(437) 536-6082 for directives.
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    We have specially programmed ATMs that can be used to withdraw money at ATMs, shops and points of sale. We sell these cards to all our customers and interested buyers all over the world, the cards have a withdrawal limit every week.

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    Copyright ©️ 2022.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I’m Joseph from New Jersey, United States. I lost my job a few months back after my divorce with my wife. I tried everything positive to make sure I took good care of my kids but all failed, and I was in debt which makes everything worse. I was kicked out of my home and i had to live with my neighbor after pleading with her to allow me to stay with her for some days while I figured out how to get a home which she agreed to, but no one was willing to help anymore. I bumped into this page from google and I was excited about this, then I contacted the hackers Bill Dean. I had just $200, so I pleaded with them to help me because of my condition but they never accepted. I believed in this, so I managed to pawn a few things and got $500. I ordered the $10,000 card and I got my card delivered to me by Ups 4 days later. I never believed my eyes! I was excited and upset as well, I managed to withdraw $2000 on the ATM and $2500 the second day. I went to Walmart and a grocery store and bought a couple of things for $3000. The card got blocked the third day and I contacted them and I was told it's a mistake from my end. I’m so happy, I have started all over again and have a good apartment with my kids you can contact him through is via email (officialhackingcompany@gmail.com)

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete